Well.  Here we go.  I’ve taken my time moving South and now I have to pay the piper.  Commanders Weather confirmed my fears with the emails below.  These are in reverse order so you can start by reading the tentative forecast at the bottom, then my response to the forecast in blue, and finally Dave’s response yesterday immediately below.  The trade off is this.  Waiting for better passage weather means increasing risk of severe tropical weather such as tropical storms or hurricanes.  Going now means I don’t have any immediate danger of tropical weather, but will take a pounding motoring into five foot seas in 20 knot winds.  The truth is, I am done with Roatan and difficult weather or not, I am ready to get South.

Last night I said goodbye for the third time to two people I met in Isla Mujers.  We’ve had goodbye’s now in Mexico, Belize, and last night, Honduras.  Safe journey again to you Adeline and Tim.  I think that goodbye along Maria’s a few days ago has soured me on goodbyes.  I feel really ready to go to sea.  The next few hours will have me lashing and stowing every single thing that could get knocked off the boat, shelves, or drawers.  It will be the most prepared I’ve been for a passage since the Gulf crossing.

I don’t know when I’ll get online again and with  the weather conditions I don’t think I’ll be blogging under way with the satellite phone.  Best case, I try to post from Cayo Vivorillo if I pull in for shelter for a night.  If not, I’ll write when possible from Isla Provedencia, Colombia some 400 miles from here.  You can check the position page to track my progress.  Much love to you all.  We’ll talk again soon.

Lee

s/v Jargo

Hi Lee,

The weather pattern for at least the past week or two has generally featured moderate E trades. Think that this pattern will persist for at least another 7-10 days and possibly longer.

If you decide to wait for a better pattern, you run the risk of seeing stronger tropical waves passing thru the region with an increasing threat for a potential tropical storm or hurricane. So, if you were to delay, would not recommend delaying more than a day or two.

With the next tropical wave anticipated to affect the area Wednesday, you could wait until this system passes and then leave Thursday. But, you may then see another tropical wave moving into the area possibly over the weekend bringing another round of increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The wind forecast may be fairly similar no matter which day you leave, look for winds mainly ENE to ESE at 15-25 kts. So, all in all, it may be better to leave sooner rather than later.

Best Regards,

Dave Pietras, CWC

On Mon, Jul 6, 2009 at 2:26 PM, Lee Winters <Lee.Winters@sailingforsos.com> wrote:

Hi Dave,

Thanks for the quick reply.  Given the general weather patterns down here is this forecast about the best I can expect to get for this passage?  Would it be more prudent to make a go of it tomorrow or the day after in light of the growing hurricane threat or sit tight and look for a disturbance that will slow the trades down a bit more in the next week or so?

Lee Winters
Phone: (281) 336-0855
Satellite Phone: 8816-316-59853

Web: www.SailingForSOS.com
Email: Lee.Winters@SailingForSOS.com

From: Commanders' Weather [mailto:info@commandersweather.com]
Sent: Monday, July 06, 2009 11:36 AM
To: Lee Winters
Subject: weather Mon 7/6 - Roatan to Isla Providencia

To:                   Lee Winters on the SY “Jargo”

From:              Commanders Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789

Route:             Roatan to Cayo Vivorillo and Isla Providencia

Departure:       approx 1200cst Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Prepared:        1115cst Monday, July 6, 2009

Summary: Generally a moderate E trade wind regime to prevail for the next several days across the W Caribbean!

1) Currently, a tropical wave appears to the S of 16n and along 84-85w with another tropical wave to the south of 20n and along 69-70w

   a) both waves are moving to the W around 20 kts

   b) enhancing shower/squall activity over E Honduras/E Nicaragua as well as near and S of Hispaniola

2) High pressure is to the ESE of Bermuda near 29n/57w this morning and ridging W to near the Bahamas and Cuba

3) This high slowly and gradually shifts to the E during the next 5-7 days while stretching out on a W to E axis

   a) west end of the ridge may be over FL and into the E Gulf of Mexico

4) While a thermal low may be fairly persistent near the Caribbean coast of Colombia for the next week or so

5) This weather pattern may tend to maintain a moderate E trade wind regime across the W Caribbean for the next 5-7 days

   a) wind speeds may generally average 15-25 kts

   b) but on occasion may reach 20-28 kts

   c) with seas mainly 5-7 ft with E swell in exposed areas

6) Think that there may be a daily threat for some scattered shower and squall/thunderstorm activity near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua and across the islands off their coasts

   a) a tropical wave passing thru the area may enhance this shower/thunderstorm activity

   b) feel that a tropical wave may pass the area Wednesday with another possibly on Sunday

   c) though not certain about the timing of these tropical waves

7) Since there are moderate trade winds across the Caribbean for the next several days, do not think there will be any organized tropical activity at this time

8) Do not see any significant differences in the forecast whether you depart Tuesday or wait for another day or two

9) Please keep us informed of your plans

Routing:

1) Routed you to near Cayo Vivorillo and averaging 2-3 kts with ENE to ESE trades prevailing

2) And passing to the E of Cayo Vivorillo for a better wind angle as you turn more S for Isla Providencia

3) There may be little difference in the forecast with moderate E trade wind regime prevailing for at least the next 5-7 days

   a) difficult to pick out tropical waves in this pattern

   b) but think one may pass thru the area about every 3 days or so

4) Please see some estimated positions below

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is CST

Tue, July 7

06: 100-120/10-15

12: 060-080/10-15                   approx depart Roatan

18: 070-090/15-22

Weather: Partly to variably cloudy with chance of a few isolated to scattered showers or a squall/thunderstorm, brief wind gusts to 30 kts are possible near any squall/thunderstorm

Seas 2-4 ft, E swell

Wed, July 8 – tropical wave passing?

00: 100-120/14-20

06: 110-130/14-20                   near 16 20n/85 55w

12: 090-110/15-22

18: 100-120/15-22

Weather: Variably cloudy with a few scattered showers and squalls/thunderstorms, brief wind gusts to 35 kts are possible near any squall/thunderstorm

Seas 3-5 ft, E swell

Thu, July 9

00: 110-130/17-24

06: 110-130/18-25                   near 16 15n/84 55w

12: 100-120/15-22

18: 090-110/15-22

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy with decreasing chances for scattered showers or a squall/thunderstorm, brief wind gusts to 35 kts are possible near any squall/thunderstorm

Seas 4-6 ft, E swell

Fri, July 10

00: 090-110/15-22

06: 080-100/19-26                   near 16 05n/83 50w

12: 090-110/19-26

18: 090-110/18-25                   off Cayo Vivorillo

Weather: Partly to variably cloudy with a chance of a few widely scattered showers and squalls/thunderstorms, brief wind gusts to 35 kts are possible near any squall or thunderstorm

Seas 5-7 ft, E swell

Sat, July 11

06: 080-100/15-22                   near 15 40n/82 55w

18: 060-080/17-24

Weather: Partly to variably cloudy with a chance for a few isolated to widely scattered showers or a squall/thunderstorm, brief wind gusts to 30 kts are possible near any squall/thunderstorm

Seas 5-7 ft, E-ENE swell

Sun. July 12 – tropical wave passing?

06: 060-080/15-22                   near 14 40n/81 45w

18: 070-090/17-24

Weather: Variable cloudiness with increasing chances for scattered showers and squalls/thunderstorms

Seas 5-7 ft, ENE swell

Mon, July 13

06: 090-110/20-28                   near Isla Providencia

18: 080-100/18-25

Weather: Variable cloudiness with decreasing chances for scattered showers and squalls/thunderstorms

Seas 5-7 ft, E swell

Best regards,

Dave Pietras

Lee Winters
Phone: (281) 336-0855
Satellite Phone: 8816-316-59853

Web: www.SailingForSOS.com
Email: Lee.Winters@SailingForSOS.com